Cheltenham favourites statistics are one of the quickest ways to understand where betting value may lie during the Cheltenham Festival 2026. While some races are regularly won by short-priced runners, others produce shocks year after year.

Looking at results from recent renewals helps identify which races tend to favour the market leaders and which contests are more unpredictable. This can be useful when deciding whether to back favourites, oppose them, or focus on each-way betting strategies.

Cheltenham Festival Favourites Statistics (2026 Overview)

Across the Cheltenham Festival, favourites typically win around one third of races, although the success rate varies significantly depending on the race type:

• Cheltenham Hurdle Races: 39% Win Rate
• Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle Races: 28% Win Rate
• Cheltenham Steeplechase Races: 46% Win Rate
• Cheltenham Handicap Steeplechase Races: 29% Win Rate

Championship races such as the Champion Hurdle or Gold Cup often feature the best horses in the sport and can be more predictable. In contrast, large-field handicaps like the Coral Cup or County Hurdle regularly produce bigger-priced winners.

At last year’s festival, across the 28 races there were 9 winners who started the race as favourite, Including Kopek des Bordes who won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the short price of 4/6. Out of the other favourites, a further 9 finished within the top 3.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Favourites (Last 10 Years)

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle opens the Cheltenham Festival each year and often attracts strong betting favourites. However, the race has historically produced a mix of short-priced winners and bigger surprises. Looking at the last ten renewals, favourites have only won around 30% of the time.

Kopek Des Bordes looks to back up 2025’s win in the Arkle on Tuesday, But will face stiff competition in the Nicky Henderson trained Lulamba.

Champion Hurdle Favourites

The Champion Hurdle is one of the most prestigious races of the Festival and frequently features clear standout contenders. In recent years, favourites have performed well compared with many other Festival races, although the race still produces occasional upsets. Out of the last 10 renewals, the favourite has made all in 7, suggesting the market often predicts the race correctly.

Can this year’s favourite The New Lion continue the strong trend? The stats suggest so. 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out, and 90% of the previous 10 were aged between 6 and 8. Both stats perfectly fit the bill to boost The New Lion’s hopes.

Last years winner Golden Ace looks set to line up again after winning the 2025 renewal, one of the most chaotic races of recent times. The race saw short priced favourite Constitution Hill fall 4 out seemingly setting up State Man, before Golden Ace stayed on well to pick up the pieces.

Champion Chase Favourites

While the Queen Mother Champion Chase is one of the headline championship races at the Cheltenham Festival, recent results suggest it has been less predictable than some other Grade 1 contests.

Looking at the last ten renewals, favourites have only converted a handful of times, with several winners emerging from slightly bigger prices in competitive fields.

This trend highlights how the two-mile chasing division can be particularly competitive, with multiple contenders often arriving with strong form. Even when a short-priced favourite lines up, the race regularly produces challengers capable of causing an upset.

Can this years favourite Majborough become the most recent to win since Energumene in 2023 and silence his jumping critics? After an impressive Leopardstown win in February, The money in the market certainly thinks so.

The Least Predictable Cheltenham Races

While some championship races favour the market leaders, several Festival handicaps are well known for producing surprise winners.

Large fields, competitive handicapping and multiple improving horses make these races much harder for favourites to dominate.

How To Use Favourite Statistics When Betting At Cheltenham

Favourite statistics should not be used in isolation, but they can help highlight where the betting market is typically reliable.

For races where favourites have historically performed well, punters may feel more confident backing the market leader. In more unpredictable handicaps, each-way betting or looking for bigger-priced runners can sometimes offer better value.

Looking at recent Cheltenham Festival results highlights clear differences in how reliable favourites are across the meeting. Some championship races regularly go to the market leader, while others produce far more unpredictable outcomes.

Overall, Cheltenham favourites perform very differently depending on the race type. Championship hurdle races have historically favoured market leaders, while races like the Champion Chase and large-field handicaps have produced more surprises.

Cheltenham Betting Guides

For more Cheltenham betting insight, explore our Festival guides:

• Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide

• Best Horse Racing Betting Sites

• Cheltenham daily previews

• Cheltenham Extra places bookmakers

• NRNB explained